Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd.

TSE:4612 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.3t

Nippon Paint Holdings Valuation

Is 4612 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4612 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4612 (¥994) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1414.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4612 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4612?

Key metric: As 4612 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4612. This is calculated by dividing 4612's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4612's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.9x
EarningsJP¥123.24b
Market CapJP¥2.33t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4612's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4612 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
6988 Nitto Denko
12.2x2.1%JP¥1.7t
4063 Shin-Etsu Chemical
21.6x10.6%JP¥11.1t
4186 Tokyo Ohka Kogyo
20x11.7%JP¥415.7b
4613 Kansai Paint
10.8x-1.0%JP¥393.3b
4612 Nippon Paint Holdings
18.9x8.1%JP¥2.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4612's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.08m
No more companies available in this PE range
4612 18.9xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4612's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4612 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.9x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4612 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥994.00
JP¥1,157.27
+16.4%
10.1%JP¥1,340.00JP¥950.00n/a11
Nov ’25JP¥1,134.50
JP¥1,156.36
+1.9%
12.0%JP¥1,380.00JP¥940.00n/a11
Oct ’25JP¥1,095.00
JP¥1,162.73
+6.2%
12.9%JP¥1,450.00JP¥940.00n/a11
Sep ’25JP¥922.20
JP¥1,202.27
+30.4%
11.1%JP¥1,450.00JP¥950.00n/a11
Aug ’25JP¥929.40
JP¥1,212.50
+30.5%
10.2%JP¥1,450.00JP¥1,050.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥1,041.00
JP¥1,230.56
+18.2%
9.6%JP¥1,450.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Jun ’25JP¥1,057.00
JP¥1,230.56
+16.4%
9.0%JP¥1,450.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
May ’25JP¥1,046.00
JP¥1,205.63
+15.3%
8.1%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,100.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥1,081.50
JP¥1,245.83
+15.2%
8.9%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,100.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥1,120.50
JP¥1,279.17
+14.2%
8.3%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,150.00n/a6
Feb ’25JP¥1,163.50
JP¥1,253.33
+7.7%
10.9%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,070.00n/a6
Jan ’25JP¥1,140.00
JP¥1,253.33
+9.9%
10.9%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,070.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥1,091.50
JP¥1,253.33
+14.8%
10.9%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,070.00n/a6
Nov ’24JP¥1,006.00
JP¥1,301.67
+29.4%
11.7%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥1,134.506
Oct ’24JP¥1,006.00
JP¥1,301.67
+29.4%
11.7%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥1,095.006
Sep ’24JP¥1,148.00
JP¥1,331.43
+16.0%
11.6%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,150.00JP¥922.207
Aug ’24JP¥1,278.50
JP¥1,410.00
+10.3%
8.8%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥929.407
Jul ’24JP¥1,183.00
JP¥1,410.00
+19.2%
8.8%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,041.007
Jun ’24JP¥1,074.00
JP¥1,410.00
+31.3%
8.8%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,057.007
May ’24JP¥1,250.00
JP¥1,424.29
+13.9%
8.8%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,046.007
Apr ’24JP¥1,238.00
JP¥1,418.57
+14.6%
8.7%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,081.507
Mar ’24JP¥1,218.00
JP¥1,374.29
+12.8%
9.2%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,120.507
Feb ’24JP¥1,177.00
JP¥1,330.00
+13.0%
5.8%JP¥1,420.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,163.507
Jan ’24JP¥1,039.00
JP¥1,252.86
+20.6%
11.3%JP¥1,420.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,140.007
Dec ’23JP¥1,163.00
JP¥1,198.57
+3.1%
9.0%JP¥1,340.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,091.507
Nov ’23JP¥964.00
JP¥1,190.00
+23.4%
8.6%JP¥1,340.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥1,006.007

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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