Daicel Corporation

TSE:4202 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥373.4b

Daicel Valuation

Is 4202 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4202 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4202 (¥1376.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1890.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4202 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4202?

Key metric: As 4202 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4202. This is calculated by dividing 4202's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4202's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.4x
EarningsJP¥58.14b
Market CapJP¥373.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4202's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4202 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18x
4403 NOF
15.9x7.2%JP¥551.1b
4182 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company
18x17.9%JP¥582.9b
4021 Nissan Chemical
19.2x6.1%JP¥751.5b
4004 Resonac Holdings
18.8x24.2%JP¥718.8b
4202 Daicel
6.4x5.2%JP¥373.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4202 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the peer average (18x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4202's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.27m
No more companies available in this PE range
4202 6.4xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies20PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4202 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4202's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4202 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4202 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4202 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,376.50
JP¥1,844.44
+34.0%
20.7%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥1,322.50
JP¥1,862.22
+40.8%
20.5%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥1,341.50
JP¥1,844.44
+37.5%
21.8%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,300.00n/a9
Sep ’25JP¥1,304.50
JP¥1,861.11
+42.7%
20.5%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,320.00n/a9
Aug ’25JP¥1,399.50
JP¥1,925.00
+37.5%
19.5%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,320.00n/a8
Jul ’25JP¥1,554.00
JP¥1,912.50
+23.1%
19.4%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,320.00n/a8
Jun ’25JP¥1,587.50
JP¥1,732.22
+9.1%
16.5%JP¥2,100.00JP¥1,230.00n/a9
May ’25JP¥1,469.50
JP¥1,686.25
+14.7%
16.1%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,230.00n/a8
Apr ’25JP¥1,431.00
JP¥1,686.25
+17.8%
16.1%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,230.00n/a8
Mar ’25JP¥1,494.50
JP¥1,612.86
+7.9%
14.2%JP¥1,890.00JP¥1,230.00n/a7
Feb ’25JP¥1,443.00
JP¥1,592.86
+10.4%
14.0%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,230.00n/a7
Jan ’25JP¥1,366.00
JP¥1,592.86
+16.6%
14.0%JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,230.00n/a7
Dec ’24JP¥1,413.50
JP¥1,706.25
+20.7%
21.4%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,230.00n/a8
Nov ’24JP¥1,311.00
JP¥1,568.75
+19.7%
25.4%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,322.508
Oct ’24JP¥1,251.00
JP¥1,610.00
+28.7%
25.2%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,200.00JP¥1,341.507
Sep ’24JP¥1,241.00
JP¥1,477.50
+19.1%
29.2%JP¥2,400.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,304.508
Aug ’24JP¥1,319.00
JP¥1,567.14
+18.8%
26.0%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,070.00JP¥1,399.507
Jul ’24JP¥1,286.00
JP¥1,567.14
+21.9%
26.0%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,070.00JP¥1,554.007
Jun ’24JP¥1,167.00
JP¥1,337.14
+14.6%
20.4%JP¥1,900.00JP¥980.00JP¥1,587.507
May ’24JP¥1,104.00
JP¥1,242.50
+12.5%
22.8%JP¥1,900.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,469.508
Apr ’24JP¥1,000.00
JP¥1,230.00
+23.0%
23.5%JP¥1,900.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,431.008
Mar ’24JP¥960.00
JP¥1,193.75
+24.3%
15.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,494.508
Feb ’24JP¥962.00
JP¥1,193.75
+24.1%
15.7%JP¥1,500.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,443.008
Jan ’24JP¥955.00
JP¥1,207.50
+26.4%
14.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,366.008
Dec ’23JP¥992.00
JP¥1,125.00
+13.4%
19.6%JP¥1,400.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,413.508
Nov ’23JP¥853.00
JP¥1,053.75
+23.5%
21.0%JP¥1,400.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,311.008

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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