Earnings Update: Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥139b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥181 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Daicel's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥593.3b in 2026. This would be a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 25% to JP¥202. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥598.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥205 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Daicel

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,568, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Daicel at JP¥2,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,170. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Daicel's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Daicel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.2% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Daicel.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Daicel going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Daicel , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.