Earnings Miss: Daicel Corporation Missed EPS By 14% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its half-yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥290b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 14%, coming in at just JP¥57.48 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Daicel

Following the latest results, Daicel's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥599.8b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥215, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥600.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥215 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,858, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Daicel at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,300. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Daicel is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Daicel. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Daicel going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Daicel is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.