Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation Just Missed EPS By 42%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The quarterly results for Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (TSE:4188) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥12.96, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥1.1t. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Mitsubishi Chemical Group

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Mitsubishi Chemical Group are now predicting revenues of JP¥4.57t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 69% to JP¥89.19. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥4.58t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥89.77 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,010, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Mitsubishi Chemical Group analyst has a price target of JP¥1,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥700. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mitsubishi Chemical Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mitsubishi Chemical Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsubishi Chemical Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,010, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mitsubishi Chemical Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mitsubishi Chemical Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.