Analysts Are Updating Their Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. (TSE:4183) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

There's been a major selloff in Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. (TSE:4183) shares in the week since it released its first-quarter report, with the stock down 22% to JP¥3,283. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of JP¥449b coming in 4.6% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥94.09, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Mitsui Chemicals

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mitsui Chemicals' twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.87t in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 34% to JP¥410. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.87t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥409 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥5,010. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Mitsui Chemicals analyst has a price target of JP¥6,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,850. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mitsui Chemicals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.1% over the past five years. Compare this to the 160 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Mitsui Chemicals is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Mitsui Chemicals analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Mitsui Chemicals is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.