Earnings Update: Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. (TSE:3863) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

The first-quarter results for Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. (TSE:3863) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥293b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥39.33. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Nippon Paper Industries' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.20t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 100% to JP¥131. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.20t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥131 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Nippon Paper Industries

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,205. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nippon Paper Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,470 and the most bearish at JP¥980 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Nippon Paper Industries' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 4.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nippon Paper Industries.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nippon Paper Industries going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Nippon Paper Industries (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.