Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.

TSE:3863 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥102.7b

Nippon Paper Industries Valuation

Is 3863 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3863 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3863 (¥890) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥2310.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3863 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3863?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

3863 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.9x
PEG Ratio-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3863's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3863 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.9x
3708 Tokushu Tokai Paper
9.3xn/aJP¥44.0b
3865 Hokuetsu
57.1x28.3%JP¥253.2b
3864 Mitsubishi Paper Mills
6.5xn/aJP¥20.9b
3861 Oji Holdings
10.9x10.7%JP¥556.7b
3863 Nippon Paper Industries
3.8x-6.3%JP¥102.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (20.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3863's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a33.5%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a33.5%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3863's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3863 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.8x
Fair PE Ratio8.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3863 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥890.00
JP¥981.67
+10.3%
4.9%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥997.00
JP¥981.67
-1.5%
4.9%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥925.00
JP¥985.00
+6.5%
5.1%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥983.00
JP¥1,070.00
+8.9%
9.8%JP¥1,250.00JP¥930.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥955.00
JP¥1,070.00
+12.0%
9.8%JP¥1,250.00JP¥930.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥970.00
JP¥1,165.00
+20.1%
5.3%JP¥1,250.00JP¥1,050.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥1,094.00
JP¥1,223.33
+11.8%
11.3%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,050.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥1,175.00
JP¥1,250.00
+6.4%
13.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,050.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥1,140.00
JP¥1,280.00
+12.3%
10.2%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,170.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥1,356.00
JP¥1,280.00
-5.6%
10.2%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,170.00n/a4
Jan ’25JP¥1,264.00
JP¥1,330.00
+5.2%
11.5%JP¥1,530.00JP¥1,170.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥1,337.00
JP¥1,304.00
-2.5%
10.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,160.00n/a5
Nov ’24JP¥1,313.00
JP¥1,316.00
+0.2%
12.0%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,160.00JP¥890.005
Oct ’24JP¥1,348.00
JP¥1,316.00
-2.4%
12.0%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,160.00JP¥997.005
Sep ’24JP¥1,308.00
JP¥1,265.00
-3.3%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥925.004
Aug ’24JP¥1,374.00
JP¥1,265.00
-7.9%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥983.004
Jul ’24JP¥1,184.00
JP¥1,265.00
+6.8%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥955.004
Jun ’24JP¥1,111.00
JP¥1,227.50
+10.5%
17.9%JP¥1,560.00JP¥950.00JP¥970.004
May ’24JP¥1,087.00
JP¥1,065.00
-2.0%
8.2%JP¥1,150.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,094.004
Apr ’24JP¥1,023.00
JP¥1,065.00
+4.1%
8.2%JP¥1,150.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,175.004
Mar ’24JP¥1,070.00
JP¥990.00
-7.5%
4.5%JP¥1,050.00JP¥930.00JP¥1,140.004
Feb ’24JP¥964.00
JP¥990.00
+2.7%
4.5%JP¥1,050.00JP¥930.00JP¥1,356.004
Jan ’24JP¥975.00
JP¥985.00
+1.0%
5.3%JP¥1,050.00JP¥910.00JP¥1,264.004
Dec ’23JP¥964.00
JP¥965.00
+0.1%
5.3%JP¥1,010.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,337.004
Nov ’23JP¥867.00
JP¥965.00
+11.3%
5.3%JP¥1,010.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,313.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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