Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.

TSE:3863 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥100.5b

Nippon Paper Industries Valuation

Is 3863 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3863 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3863 (¥871) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥2341.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3863 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3863?

Key metric: As 3863 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3863. This is calculated by dividing 3863's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3863's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.1x
EarningsJP¥19.76b
Market CapJP¥100.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3863's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3863 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
3708 Tokushu Tokai Paper
9.7xn/aJP¥42.3b
3865 Hokuetsu
48.8x26.2%JP¥257.2b
3864 Mitsubishi Paper Mills
10.9xn/aJP¥25.0b
3877 Chuetsu Pulp & Paper
6.2xn/aJP¥19.6b
3863 Nippon Paper Industries
5.1x6.2%JP¥100.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3863's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3863 5.1xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies21PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3863's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3863 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.1x
Fair PE Ratio10.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3863 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3863 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥871.00
JP¥916.67
+5.2%
5.6%JP¥1,000.00JP¥860.00n/a6
Dec ’25JP¥864.00
JP¥951.67
+10.1%
4.4%JP¥1,000.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥890.00
JP¥981.67
+10.3%
4.9%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥997.00
JP¥981.67
-1.5%
4.9%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥925.00
JP¥985.00
+6.5%
5.1%JP¥1,050.00JP¥900.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥983.00
JP¥1,070.00
+8.9%
9.8%JP¥1,250.00JP¥930.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥955.00
JP¥1,070.00
+12.0%
9.8%JP¥1,250.00JP¥930.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥970.00
JP¥1,165.00
+20.1%
5.3%JP¥1,250.00JP¥1,050.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥1,094.00
JP¥1,223.33
+11.8%
11.3%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,050.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥1,175.00
JP¥1,250.00
+6.4%
13.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,050.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥1,140.00
JP¥1,280.00
+12.3%
10.2%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,170.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥1,356.00
JP¥1,280.00
-5.6%
10.2%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,170.00n/a4
Jan ’25JP¥1,264.00
JP¥1,330.00
+5.2%
11.5%JP¥1,530.00JP¥1,170.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥1,337.00
JP¥1,304.00
-2.5%
10.8%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,160.00JP¥864.005
Nov ’24JP¥1,313.00
JP¥1,316.00
+0.2%
12.0%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,160.00JP¥890.005
Oct ’24JP¥1,348.00
JP¥1,316.00
-2.4%
12.0%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,160.00JP¥997.005
Sep ’24JP¥1,308.00
JP¥1,265.00
-3.3%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥925.004
Aug ’24JP¥1,374.00
JP¥1,265.00
-7.9%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥983.004
Jul ’24JP¥1,184.00
JP¥1,265.00
+6.8%
14.1%JP¥1,560.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥955.004
Jun ’24JP¥1,111.00
JP¥1,227.50
+10.5%
17.9%JP¥1,560.00JP¥950.00JP¥970.004
May ’24JP¥1,087.00
JP¥1,065.00
-2.0%
8.2%JP¥1,150.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,094.004
Apr ’24JP¥1,023.00
JP¥1,065.00
+4.1%
8.2%JP¥1,150.00JP¥950.00JP¥1,175.004
Mar ’24JP¥1,070.00
JP¥990.00
-7.5%
4.5%JP¥1,050.00JP¥930.00JP¥1,140.004
Feb ’24JP¥964.00
JP¥990.00
+2.7%
4.5%JP¥1,050.00JP¥930.00JP¥1,356.004
Jan ’24JP¥975.00
JP¥985.00
+1.0%
5.3%JP¥1,050.00JP¥910.00JP¥1,264.004
Dec ’23JP¥964.00
JP¥965.00
+0.1%
5.3%JP¥1,010.00JP¥880.00JP¥1,337.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 18:58
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kyoji ChibaBofA Global Research
Ryohei MasumotoCitigroup Inc
Jun YamaguchiCredit Suisse