Asahi Kasei Corporation

TSE:3407 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.5t

Asahi Kasei Valuation

Is 3407 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3407 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3407 (¥1101.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1640.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3407 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3407?

Key metric: As 3407 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3407. This is calculated by dividing 3407's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3407's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.9x
EarningsJP¥73.21b
Market CapJP¥1.53t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3407's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3407 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.6x
3402 Toray Industries
29.9x20.3%JP¥1.5t
4042 Tosoh
11.7x7.8%JP¥650.7b
4183 Mitsui Chemicals
12.6x18.6%JP¥650.6b
3405 Kuraray
12.3x11.1%JP¥645.6b
3407 Asahi Kasei
20.9x18.1%JP¥1.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3407 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the peer average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3407's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$31.69m
No more companies available in this PE range
3407 20.9xIndustry Avg. 12.0xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3407 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3407's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3407 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3407 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3407 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,101.50
JP¥1,305.45
+18.5%
11.8%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,110.00n/a11
Nov ’25JP¥1,127.00
JP¥1,302.73
+15.6%
12.4%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,110.00n/a11
Oct ’25JP¥1,068.50
JP¥1,272.00
+19.0%
14.6%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,020.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥1,032.00
JP¥1,257.00
+21.8%
15.4%JP¥1,600.00JP¥1,020.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥1,032.00
JP¥1,239.00
+20.1%
13.5%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,020.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥1,025.50
JP¥1,149.00
+12.0%
10.3%JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,000.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥1,025.00
JP¥1,144.00
+11.6%
9.5%JP¥1,350.00JP¥1,000.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥1,105.50
JP¥1,113.00
+0.7%
11.4%JP¥1,350.00JP¥970.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥1,078.50
JP¥1,113.00
+3.2%
11.4%JP¥1,350.00JP¥970.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥1,074.00
JP¥1,100.00
+2.4%
10.2%JP¥1,350.00JP¥970.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥1,107.50
JP¥1,092.22
-1.4%
12.3%JP¥1,400.00JP¥930.00n/a9
Jan ’25JP¥1,039.00
JP¥1,071.00
+3.1%
12.5%JP¥1,400.00JP¥930.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥1,019.50
JP¥1,031.82
+1.2%
12.8%JP¥1,400.00JP¥900.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥938.60
JP¥1,003.64
+6.9%
11.8%JP¥1,350.00JP¥900.00JP¥1,127.0011
Oct ’24JP¥939.90
JP¥1,004.00
+6.8%
12.3%JP¥1,350.00JP¥900.00JP¥1,068.5010
Sep ’24JP¥950.70
JP¥1,011.00
+6.3%
12.2%JP¥1,350.00JP¥890.00JP¥1,032.0010
Aug ’24JP¥973.80
JP¥1,028.00
+5.6%
11.6%JP¥1,350.00JP¥890.00JP¥1,032.0010
Jul ’24JP¥972.00
JP¥1,012.00
+4.1%
12.7%JP¥1,350.00JP¥890.00JP¥1,025.5010
Jun ’24JP¥941.70
JP¥1,001.00
+6.3%
14.2%JP¥1,350.00JP¥780.00JP¥1,025.0010
May ’24JP¥963.70
JP¥984.00
+2.1%
13.8%JP¥1,300.00JP¥780.00JP¥1,105.5010
Apr ’24JP¥926.30
JP¥1,010.00
+9.0%
13.9%JP¥1,300.00JP¥780.00JP¥1,078.509
Mar ’24JP¥953.80
JP¥1,021.00
+7.0%
11.8%JP¥1,300.00JP¥860.00JP¥1,074.0010
Feb ’24JP¥979.70
JP¥1,075.00
+9.7%
17.4%JP¥1,550.00JP¥860.00JP¥1,107.5010
Jan ’24JP¥941.40
JP¥1,124.00
+19.4%
17.7%JP¥1,550.00JP¥940.00JP¥1,039.0010
Dec ’23JP¥1,025.00
JP¥1,154.55
+12.6%
15.2%JP¥1,550.00JP¥940.00JP¥1,019.5011
Nov ’23JP¥957.50
JP¥1,183.64
+23.6%
17.4%JP¥1,650.00JP¥940.00JP¥938.6011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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