What You Need To Know About The MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) Analyst Downgrade Today

Today is shaping up negative for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the latest downgrade, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥6.3t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 36% to JP¥409. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥6.1t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥401 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment in this consensus update, although the analysts have made a small increase to revenue forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings

It may not be a surprise to see that the analysts have reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,633, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings's valuation in the near term.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings going forwards.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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