Earnings Report: Ya-Man Ltd. Missed Revenue Estimates By 21%

The third-quarter results for Ya-Man Ltd. (TSE:6630) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were JP¥6.8b, 21% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of JP¥71.12 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Ya-Man

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ya-Man from three analysts is for revenues of JP¥34.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 4.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 87% to JP¥50.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥37.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥64.51 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 7.1% to JP¥919, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ya-Man, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥989 and the most bearish at JP¥850 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ya-Man's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Ya-Man's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Ya-Man's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ya-Man going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ya-Man .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.