Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 56%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4967) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥33b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 56%, coming in at just JP¥21.86 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kobayashi Pharmaceutical after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kobayashi Pharmaceutical from seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥171.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 16% to JP¥167. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥172.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥178 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Kobayashi Pharmaceutical

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥5,683, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kobayashi Pharmaceutical at JP¥6,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥5,000. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Kobayashi Pharmaceutical's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Kobayashi Pharmaceutical to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kobayashi Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Kobayashi Pharmaceutical that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.