KOSÉ Corporation Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for KOSÉ Corporation (TSE:4922) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 14% to JP¥6,900. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of JP¥80b missing analyst predictions by 3.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of JP¥38.51 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for KOSÉ

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for KOSÉ from twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥343.3b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 132% to JP¥322. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥342.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥326 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥9,462, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on KOSÉ, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥12,000 and the most bearish at JP¥7,500 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that KOSÉ's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 5.7% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.6% annually. So while KOSÉ's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on KOSÉ. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for KOSÉ going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - KOSÉ has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.