Niitaka (TSE:4465) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4465 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4465 (¥2144) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥4753.66)

4465 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

4465 Stock Overview

Niitaka Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells commercial detergents, cleaners, disinfectants, and bleach products in Japan.

Rewards

Trading at 54.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (1.5%) are lower than last year (8.6%)

Does not have a meaningful market cap (¥13B)

Niitaka Competitors

S.T

TSE:4951

JP¥33.1b

TRANSACTIONLtd

TSE:7818

JP¥32.6b

Earth

TSE:4985

JP¥116.3b

Pigeon

TSE:7956

JP¥220.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Niitaka
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥2,144.00
52 Week High	JP¥2,544.00
52 Week Low	JP¥2,000.00
Beta	0.30
1 Month Change	-2.63%
3 Month Change	-11.07%
1 Year Change	-5.63%
3 Year Change	47.35%
5 Year Change	22.31%
Change since IPO	349.22%

Shareholder Returns

	4465	JP Household Products	JP Market
7D	2.8%	8.1%	1.9%
1Y	-5.6%	-6.1%	-6.2%

Return vs Industry: 4465 matched the JP Household Products industry which returned -6.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 4465 matched the JP Market which returned -6.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 4465's price volatile compared to industry and market?
4465 volatility
4465 Average Weekly Movement	4.2%
Household Products Industry Average Movement	3.8%
Market Average Movement	4.2%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.5%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.3%

Stable Share Price: 4465 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 4465's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1963	344	Yoshiaki Okuyama	https://www.niitaka.co.jp

Niitaka Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells commercial detergents, cleaners, disinfectants, and bleach products in Japan. The company also manufactures and sells solid fuels, food sanitation products, hand washes, and cosmetic ingredients. In addition, it sells and leases kitchen equipment.

Niitaka Fundamentals Summary

How do Niitaka's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
4465 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥12.66b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥254.00m
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥17.49b

49.8x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is 4465 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
4465 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥17.49b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥10.16b
Gross Profit	JP¥7.33b
Other Expenses	JP¥7.07b
Earnings	JP¥254.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Feb 28, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 14, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	43.03
Gross Margin	41.89%
Net Profit Margin	1.45%
Debt/Equity Ratio	26.2%

How did 4465 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.3%

Current Dividend Yield

93%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 4465 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4465?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 4465. This is calculated by dividing 4465's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 4465's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥12.66b

4465 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4465's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

4465 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4465 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.1x
4951 S.T	29.9x	21.7%	JP¥33.1b
7818 TRANSACTIONLtd	17.1x	13.6%	JP¥32.6b
4985 Earth	21.8x	9.9%	JP¥116.3b
7956 Pigeon	23.5x	6.6%	JP¥220.5b
4465 Niitaka	49.8x	n/a	JP¥12.7b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4465 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.8x) compared to the peer average (23.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4465's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Household Products Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4465 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.8x) compared to the JP Household Products industry average (23.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4465's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4465 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	49.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 4465's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4465 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4465 (¥2144) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4753.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4465 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 4465's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Niitaka forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

7.7%

Forecasted Household industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Niitaka has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Examine Niitaka's financial health to determine how well-positioned it is against times of financial stress by looking at its level of debt over time and how much cash it has left.

Past Performance

How has Niitaka performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

0.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 4465 has a large one-off loss of ¥1.1B impacting its February 28 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: 4465's current net profit margins (1.5%) are lower than last year (8.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 4465's earnings have grown by 0.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 4465's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 4465 had negative earnings growth (-83.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Household Products industry average (-7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 4465's Return on Equity (2.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Niitaka's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 4465's short term assets (¥11.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥4.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: 4465's short term assets (¥11.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥4.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 4465 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 4465's debt to equity ratio has increased from 8.8% to 26.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 4465's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (64%).

Interest Coverage: 4465 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Niitaka current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.31%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 4465's dividend (1.31%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (1.68%).

High Dividend: 4465's dividend (1.31%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (3.74%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 4465's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 4465's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (93%), 4465's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (14.2%), 4465's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Yoshiaki Okuyama (64 yo)

9yrs

Tenure

Mr. Yoshiaki Okuyama has been the President of Niitaka Co., Ltd. since June 2013. Mr. Okuyama has been the Chief Executive Officer of Fujian Niitaka Chemicals at Daily Necessities Co., Ltd.since February...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 4465's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 4465's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 18.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/02/28
Annual Earnings	2021/05/31