Earnings Miss: Olympus Corporation Missed EPS By 50% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Olympus Corporation (TSE:7733), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥207b revenue coming in 9.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥7.97 missed the mark badly, arriving some 50% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Olympus after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Olympus' 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥977.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 19% to JP¥80.34 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥989.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥87.63 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Olympus

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,174, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Olympus analyst has a price target of JP¥3,412 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,660. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Olympus' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.5% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Olympus is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Olympus. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Olympus' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,174, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Olympus going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Olympus' balance sheet, and whether we think Olympus is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.