Terumo Corporation (TSE:4543) Just Reported Interim Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Terumo Corporation (TSE:4543) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to JP¥2,374 in the past week. Terumo beat revenue expectations by 3.4%, at JP¥535b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at JP¥23.76, some 2.1% short of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Terumo after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Terumo's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.08t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 12% to JP¥99.42. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.07t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥102 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Terumo

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,283, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Terumo analyst has a price target of JP¥3,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,850. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Terumo's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Terumo.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Terumo. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Terumo going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.