JMDC Inc. Just Missed EPS By 27%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for JMDC Inc. (TSE:4483), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥11b revenue coming in 4.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥25.60 missed the mark badly, arriving some 27% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for JMDC

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JMDC's 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥52.4b in 2026. This reflects a huge 29% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 81% to JP¥125. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥52.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥128 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥5,573, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic JMDC analyst has a price target of JP¥7,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,900. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that JMDC is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,573, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for JMDC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with JMDC , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.