Medley, Inc.

TSE:4480 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥136.9b

Medley Valuation

Is 4480 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4480 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4480 (¥4255) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7886.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4480 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4480?

Key metric: As 4480 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4480. This is calculated by dividing 4480's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4480's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio50.9x
EarningsJP¥2.71b
Market CapJP¥136.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4480's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4480 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.8x
3733 Software Service
12.3x9.1%JP¥68.1b
4483 JMDC
67.1x24.9%JP¥273.5b
3939 Kanamic NetworkLTD
25.7x28.3%JP¥22.9b
4820 EM Systems
22.3x8.9%JP¥47.1b
4480 Medley
50.9x31.5%JP¥136.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4480 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.9x) compared to the peer average (31.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4480's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Services Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4480 50.9xIndustry Avg. 23.4xNo. of Companies5PE020406080100+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4480 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.9x) compared to the Asian Healthcare Services industry average (23.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4480's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4480 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio50.9x
Fair PE Ratio34.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4480 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4480 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥4,255.00
JP¥5,550.00
+30.4%
23.3%JP¥7,400.00JP¥3,800.00n/a4
Nov ’25JP¥3,700.00
JP¥5,400.00
+45.9%
24.2%JP¥7,300.00JP¥3,800.00n/a4
Oct ’25JP¥3,950.00
JP¥5,400.00
+36.7%
24.2%JP¥7,300.00JP¥3,800.00n/a4
Sep ’25JP¥3,470.00
JP¥5,650.00
+62.8%
18.5%JP¥7,300.00JP¥4,700.00n/a4
Aug ’25JP¥3,995.00
JP¥5,800.00
+45.2%
15.8%JP¥7,300.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
Jul ’25JP¥3,495.00
JP¥5,800.00
+66.0%
15.8%JP¥7,300.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
Jun ’25JP¥3,330.00
JP¥5,890.00
+76.9%
15.5%JP¥7,300.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
May ’25JP¥3,565.00
JP¥5,865.00
+64.5%
14.9%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
Apr ’25JP¥4,835.00
JP¥5,940.00
+22.9%
14.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥5,060.00
JP¥5,940.00
+17.4%
14.4%JP¥7,200.00JP¥4,800.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥4,590.00
JP¥6,115.00
+33.2%
19.7%JP¥7,900.00JP¥4,500.00n/a4
Jan ’25JP¥4,400.00
JP¥6,180.00
+40.5%
22.5%JP¥8,360.00JP¥4,500.00n/a4
Dec ’24JP¥4,260.00
JP¥6,530.00
+53.3%
16.2%JP¥8,360.00JP¥5,900.00n/a4
Nov ’24JP¥4,285.00
JP¥6,625.00
+54.6%
13.3%JP¥8,100.00JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,700.004
Oct ’24JP¥4,805.00
JP¥6,625.00
+37.9%
13.3%JP¥8,100.00JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,950.004
Sep ’24JP¥5,860.00
JP¥6,200.00
+5.8%
4.8%JP¥6,500.00JP¥5,900.00JP¥3,470.002
Aug ’24JP¥5,240.00
JP¥4,800.00
-8.4%
18.8%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥3,995.002
Jul ’24JP¥5,340.00
JP¥4,800.00
-10.1%
18.8%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥3,495.002
Jun ’24JP¥4,850.00
JP¥4,800.00
-1.0%
18.8%JP¥5,700.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥3,330.002
May ’24JP¥3,485.00
JP¥4,500.00
+29.1%
13.3%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥3,565.002
Apr ’24JP¥4,030.00
JP¥4,500.00
+11.7%
13.3%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥4,835.002
Mar ’24JP¥3,920.00
JP¥4,400.00
+12.2%
11.4%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥5,060.002
Feb ’24JP¥4,610.00
JP¥4,400.00
-4.6%
11.4%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥4,590.002
Dec ’23JP¥4,180.00
JP¥4,500.00
+7.7%
2.2%JP¥4,600.00JP¥4,400.00JP¥4,260.002
Nov ’23JP¥3,645.00
JP¥4,200.00
+15.2%
4.8%JP¥4,400.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥4,285.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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