Getting In Cheap On Kikkoman Corporation (TSE:2801) Is Unlikely

When close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider Kikkoman Corporation (TSE:2801) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.6x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Kikkoman certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Kikkoman

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Is There Enough Growth For Kikkoman?

Kikkoman's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 30% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 83% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eleven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 4.8% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Kikkoman's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Kikkoman's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Kikkoman with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

You might be able to find a better investment than Kikkoman. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.