Earnings Beat: Sapporo Holdings Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Sapporo Holdings Limited (TSE:2501) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.1% to hit JP¥138b. Sapporo Holdings reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥117, which was a notable 18% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Sapporo Holdings' three analysts is for revenues of JP¥548.5b in 2026. This reflects an okay 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 386% to JP¥443. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥548.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥358 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for Sapporo Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥6,525, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Sapporo Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,900 and the most bearish at JP¥5,000 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Sapporo Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.5% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Sapporo Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Sapporo Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Sapporo Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Sapporo Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.