Earnings Update: Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. (TSE:2212) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

The quarterly results for Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. (TSE:2212) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Yamazaki Baking reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥319b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥55.39, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Yamazaki Baking's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥1.28t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.1% to JP¥196. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.28t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥190 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Yamazaki Baking's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Yamazaki Baking

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥3,395, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yamazaki Baking at JP¥3,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,950. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Yamazaki Baking is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yamazaki Baking's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Yamazaki Baking's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yamazaki Baking is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Yamazaki Baking following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yamazaki Baking's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,395, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Yamazaki Baking going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Yamazaki Baking's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.