M&A Research Institute Holdings Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for M&A Research Institute Holdings Inc. (TSE:9552) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 9.8% to JP¥1,365. Revenues were JP¥3.5b, 30% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of JP¥98.82 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, M&A Research Institute Holdings' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥20.4b in 2025. This would be a major 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 32% to JP¥94.39. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥21.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥96.59 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for M&A Research Institute Holdings

The consensus price target fell 45% to JP¥2,990, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic M&A Research Institute Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥3,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,470. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that M&A Research Institute Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 69% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect M&A Research Institute Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for M&A Research Institute Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple M&A Research Institute Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with M&A Research Institute Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.