Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) After Its First-Quarter Results

Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to JP¥3,549 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Japan Exchange Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥40b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥30.31, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Japan Exchange Group

Following the latest results, Japan Exchange Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥163.7b in 2025. This would be an okay 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to JP¥118. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥162.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥118 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,558, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Japan Exchange Group at JP¥5,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,730. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Japan Exchange Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Japan Exchange Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Japan Exchange Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,558, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Japan Exchange Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Japan Exchange Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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