Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Japan Exchange Group, Inc.'s (TSE:8697) Annual Report

Investors in Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at JP¥1,592 following the release of its full-year results. Japan Exchange Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥164b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥58.72, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Japan Exchange Group's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥165.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥58.92, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥168.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥60.57 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Japan Exchange Group

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,680, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Japan Exchange Group at JP¥2,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,410. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Japan Exchange Group shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Japan Exchange Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Japan Exchange Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Japan Exchange Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,680, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Exchange Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Japan Exchange Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.