Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 07
Now 21% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at JP¥925. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥765, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 37%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.0% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 27% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Apr 29
Okasan Securities Group Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026 Okasan Securities Group Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026. New Risk • Mar 30
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Announcement • Mar 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q4, 2026 Results on Apr 28, 2026 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2026 results on Apr 28, 2026 Declared Dividend • Mar 19
Dividend of JP¥30.00 announced Dividend of JP¥30.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 8th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (43% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (9% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 1.8% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 46% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥27.88 (vs JP¥14.06 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥27.88 (up from JP¥14.06 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥25.4b (up 25% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥5.58b (up 97% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 22% (up from 14% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Capital Markets industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 29% per year. Announcement • Dec 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Jan 29, 2026 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Jan 29, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 20
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.8% to JP¥702. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥580, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 5.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 42% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 04
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.1% to JP¥705. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥578, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 5.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 42% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥22.41 (vs JP¥16.64 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥22.41 (up from JP¥16.64 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥23.0b (up 15% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥4.48b (up 33% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 20% (up from 17% in 2Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Capital Markets industry in Japan are expected to grow by 2.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 25% per year. Announcement • Sep 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results at 11:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on Oct 30, 2025 Announcement • Aug 20
SBI Okasan Asset Management Co., Ltd. entered into agreement to acquire Okasan Capital Partners Co., Ltd. from Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609). SBI Okasan Asset Management Co., Ltd. entered into agreement to acquire Okasan Capital Partners Co., Ltd. from Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609) on August 20, 2025.
The expected completion of the transaction is September 30, 2025. New Risk • Aug 13
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 15% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 15% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥8.57 (vs JP¥16.45 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥8.57 (down from JP¥16.45 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥18.3b (down 10.0% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.72b (down 49% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 16% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 25% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 31
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.1% to JP¥660. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥544, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.4% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 1.3% in the next 2 years. Board Change • Jul 04
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 2 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Shinichi Yoshida was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Jun 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Jul 30, 2025 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 11:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on Jul 30, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 14
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.7% to JP¥689. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥571, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.4% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 1.3% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥57.61 (vs JP¥64.29 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥57.61 (down from JP¥64.29 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥79.9b (down 3.2% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥11.7b (down 12% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 15% (down from 16% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 1.8% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥558, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 8.7x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 73% over the past three years. Announcement • Mar 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 28, 2025 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 28, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥30.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 06 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.3%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.4%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 15
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.5% to JP¥670. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥558, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 17%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 11% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.06 (vs JP¥8.73 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥14.06 (up from JP¥8.73 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥20.2b (up 5.8% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.83b (up 59% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 14% (up from 9.3% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Capital Markets industry in Japan are expected to grow by 5.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 27
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.1% to JP¥644. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥535, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.4% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 7.2% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 27
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.5% to JP¥656. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥545, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.4% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 7.2% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Dec 26
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Jan 30, 2025 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Jan 30, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 03
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.1% to JP¥651. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥539, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.4% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 7.2% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥16.64 (vs JP¥13.56 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥16.64 (up from JP¥13.56 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥20.0b (up 2.6% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.37b (up 21% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 17% (up from 14% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Capital Markets industry in Japan are expected to grow by 3.9%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 27
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 17% to JP¥666. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥555, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 1.7% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 6.4% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Sep 25
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2024 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Oct 30, 2024 Board Change • Aug 20
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Kiyoshi Ujihara was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 16
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 12% to JP¥666. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥552, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 0.7% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 15% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥555, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 55% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥16.28 (vs JP¥25.35 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥16.28 (down from JP¥25.35 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥20.7b (flat on 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.31b (down 36% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 16% (down from 25% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 26
Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,000,000 shares, representing 0.98% for ¥1,500 million. Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,000,000 shares, representing 0.98% of its issued share capital, for ¥1,500 million. The purpose of the program is to carry out flexible capital policy in response to changes in the business environment, and is a part of the shareholder return policy based on the shareholder return policy announced on March 24, 2023. The program will be valid till October 31, 2024. As of July 25, 2024, the company had 203,570,664 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and27,646,409 shares in treasury stock. Announcement • Jun 26
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Jul 26, 2024 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Jul 26, 2024 Reported Earnings • May 01
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥64.29 (vs JP¥2.59 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥64.29 (up from JP¥2.59 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥82.5b (up 27% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥13.2b (up JP¥12.6b from FY 2023). Profit margin: 16% (up from 0.8% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Capital Markets industry in Japan are expected to grow by 5.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 29
Okasan Securities Group Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Okasan Securities Group Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Announcement • Mar 24
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 26, 2024 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 26, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 10 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). New Risk • Feb 16
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 14% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥8.73 (vs JP¥11.75 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥8.73 (down from JP¥11.75 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥19.1b (up 23% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.79b (down 28% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.3% (down from 16% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Dec 24
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Jan 30, 2024 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Jan 30, 2024 New Risk • Nov 22
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 31% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.56 (vs JP¥3.95 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥13.56 (up from JP¥3.95 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥19.5b (up 12% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.80b (up 248% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 14% (up from 4.6% in 2Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 30
Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609) announces an Equity Buyback for 3,000,000 shares, representing 1.46% for ¥2,000 million. Okasan Securities Group Inc. (TSE:8609) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 3,000,000 shares, representing 1.46% of its issued share capital, for ¥2,000 million. The purpose of the program is to carry out flexible capital policy in response to changes in the business environment, and is a part of the shareholder return policy based on the shareholder return policy announced on March 24, 2023. The program will be valid till March 22, 2024. As of October 27, 2023, the company had 206,086,084 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 25,130,989 shares in treasury stock. Announcement • Sep 27
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Oct 30, 2023 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Oct 30, 2023 Reported Earnings • Jul 29
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.35 (vs JP¥3.90 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥25.35 (up from JP¥3.90 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥20.8b (up 35% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥5.20b (up JP¥5.97b from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 25% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Jul 26
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 386% The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 1.9% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 386% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. High level of non-cash earnings (40% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.8% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (3.6% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jun 26
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Jul 28, 2023 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Jul 28, 2023 Reported Earnings • Apr 29
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥2.59 (vs JP¥50.89 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥2.59 (down from JP¥50.89 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥64.9b (down 11% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥529.0m (down 95% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 14% in FY 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥481, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 11.5x. Average trailing P/E is 23x in the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 47% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥11.75 (vs JP¥7.36 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥11.75 (up from JP¥7.36 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥15.6b (down 20% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥2.47b (up 69% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 16% (up from 7.5% in 3Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Dec 26
Okasan Securities Group Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2023 Okasan Securities Group Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Jan 30, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Kiyoshi Ujihara was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥3.95 (vs JP¥10.42 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥3.95 (down from JP¥10.42 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥17.3b (down 8.8% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥803.0m (down 61% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.6% (down from 11% in 2Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • Oct 11
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 4.7%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥423, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
First quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥3.90 loss per share (vs JP¥2.19 profit in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: JP¥3.90 loss per share (down from JP¥2.19 profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥15.4b (down 11% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥772.0m (down 278% from profit in 1Q 2022). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.5%, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: JP¥50.89 (vs JP¥30.42 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥50.89 (up from JP¥30.42 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥72.6b (up 9.8% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥10.1b (up 67% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 14% (up from 9.1% in FY 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Kiyoshi Ujihara was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 09 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). In line with average of industry peers (3.9%). Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥7.36 (up from JP¥4.14 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥19.5b (up 19% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.46b (up 78% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 5.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥10.42 (vs JP¥5.23 in 2Q 2021) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥19.0b (up 17% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥2.06b (up 99% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 6.4% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥2.19 (vs JP¥2.66 in 1Q 2021) The company reported a soft first quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥17.3b (up 15% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥433.0m (down 18% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 3.5% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • May 02
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥30.42 (vs JP¥18.31 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥66.1b (up 3.2% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥6.02b (up 66% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.1% (up from 5.7% in FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 24
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 08 June 2021. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (2.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 19
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥499, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 47.7x. Average trailing P/E is 23x in the Capital Markets industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 17
New 90-day high: JP¥428 The company is up 19% from its price of JP¥361 on 19 November 2020. The Japanese market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Capital Markets industry, which is also up 19% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥4.14 (vs JP¥21.03 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥16.4b (down 2.8% from 3Q 2020). Net income: JP¥818.0m (down 80% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 5.0% (down from 25% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 08
New 90-day high: JP¥396 The company is up 14% from its price of JP¥348 on 09 October 2020. The Japanese market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Capital Markets industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 03
New 90-day high: JP¥390 The company is up 18% from its price of JP¥331 on 04 September 2020. The Japanese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Capital Markets industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. 
