PROGRIT Inc.'s (TSE:9560) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.2x PROGRIT Inc. (TSE:9560) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, PROGRIT has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for PROGRIT

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on PROGRIT's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like PROGRIT's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 98% gain to the company's bottom line. As a result, it also grew EPS by 22% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that PROGRIT is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From PROGRIT's P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that PROGRIT currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - PROGRIT has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on PROGRIT, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.