Earnings Report: LITALICO Inc. Missed Revenue Estimates By 6.4%

One of the biggest stories of last week was how LITALICO Inc. (TSE:7366) shares plunged 32% in the week since its latest first-quarter results, closing yesterday at JP¥1,093. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥7.7b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥99.38 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for LITALICO

After the latest results, the four analysts covering LITALICO are now predicting revenues of JP¥35.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 25% to JP¥78.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥35.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥85.71 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 13% to JP¥3,145, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on LITALICO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,300 and the most bearish at JP¥2,990 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting LITALICO is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that LITALICO is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on LITALICO. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for LITALICO going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with LITALICO (including 1 which is significant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com