RVH Inc.'s (TSE:6786) 35% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Despite an already strong run, RVH Inc. (TSE:6786) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 35% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 59% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in Japan's Consumer Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.8x, you may consider RVH as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.7x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

View our latest analysis for RVH

How RVH Has Been Performing

The revenue growth achieved at RVH over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on RVH will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For RVH?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like RVH's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 15% last year. As a result, it also grew revenue by 20% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that RVH is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in RVH's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of RVH revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for RVH (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.