Round One Corporation Just Missed EPS By 9.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Round One Corporation (TSE:4680) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 8.6% to JP¥964. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥177b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.0% to hit JP¥59.71 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Round One. View them for free.

Following the latest results, Round One's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥187.5b in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 24% to JP¥74.95. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥188.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥73.73 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Round One

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,471. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Round One, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,950 and the most bearish at JP¥1,200 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Round One's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 162 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Round One is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,471, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Round One. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Round One analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Round One that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.