New Risk • May 13
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 2.2% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Live News • May 12
Open House Group Lifts FY2026 Outlook After Record 2Q Sales and Strong Shareholder Returns Open House Group reported record-high net sales and profits for 2Q FY2026, supported mainly by firm demand in single-family homes and property resale, with single-family home sales rising 22.9% year-on-year.
The company raised its FY2026 net sales target to about ¥1.49b and lifted its operating profit forecast to up to ¥180b, reflecting management’s stronger earnings expectations.
Open House also increased full-year earnings and dividend forecasts and plans to return more capital to shareholders through higher dividends and share buybacks, while stating that Middle East geopolitical risks have not affected operations.
The combination of record 2Q results, higher full-year guidance and unchanged operations despite geopolitical tension indicates management confidence in current urban housing demand and the company’s balance sheet.
Investors may want to weigh the appeal of higher expected dividends and buybacks against exposure to housing market conditions and the risk associated with sustaining current sales levels. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 12
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.6% to JP¥9,011. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥11,648, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.1%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 6.3% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • May 09
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on May 11, 2026 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 11, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥100.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 11 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% and the cash payout ratio is 86%. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Price Target Changed • Mar 03
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥11,810 Up from JP¥10,390, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of JP¥10,675. Stock is up 87% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥1,066 for next year compared to JP¥875 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥11,440, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 158% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥7,878 per share. Price Target Changed • Feb 12
Price target increased by 9.7% to JP¥10,390 Up from JP¥9,470, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 5.9% below last closing price of JP¥11,045. Stock is up 117% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥1,069 for next year compared to JP¥875 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 12
Now 30% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 38% to JP¥11,045. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥8,471, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 10% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.3%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.8% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Feb 11
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥244 (up from JP¥197 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥329.9b (up 4.3% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥27.4b (up 20% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 8.3% (up from 7.3% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 8.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 25% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jan 08
Final dividend of JP¥94.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥94.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 11th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (20% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (82% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 29% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 30% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Dec 25
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥875 (up from JP¥783 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.34t (up 3.1% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥100.7b (up 8.3% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 7.2% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Dec 23
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Feb 10, 2026 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Feb 10, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥875 (up from JP¥783 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.34t (up 3.1% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥100.7b (up 8.3% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 7.2% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥8,952, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 67% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Nov 15
Price target increased by 8.5% to JP¥8,210 Up from JP¥7,570, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥7,987. Stock is up 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥893 for next year compared to JP¥783 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥94.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 26 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Announcement • Sep 17
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Nov 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥210 (vs JP¥141 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥210 (up from JP¥141 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥296.3b (up 1.4% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥24.0b (up 44% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 8.1% (up from 5.7% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year. Announcement • Jun 13
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Aug 13, 2025 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Aug 13, 2025 Declared Dividend • Jun 12
First half dividend of JP¥94.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥94.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 26th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (20% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 34% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 29% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • May 17
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 14% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥762 to JP¥880. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥1.32t. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥6,210. Share price rose 5.1% to JP¥6,074 over the past week. Announcement • Mar 27
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on May 14, 2025 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on May 14, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥84.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 12 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.5%). Announcement • Feb 28
Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) completed the acquisition of 31.32% stake in Pressance Corporation (TSE:3254) from a group of shareholders for ¥51.9 billion. Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) proposed to acquire remaining 36.58% stake in Pressance Corporation (TSE:3254) from a group of shareholders for ¥60.7 billion on January 10, 2025. A cash consideration of ¥60.68 billion valued at ¥2390 per share will be paid by Open House Group Co., Ltd. As part of consideration, ¥60.68 billion is paid towards common equity of Pressance Corporation. The transaction will be financed through senior debt of ¥60.7 billion from from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
Tender Offeror will implement the Squeeze-Out Procedure with the aim of making the Tender Offeror the only shareholder of the Pressance Corporation. Tender offer will commence on January 14, 2025 and will end on February 26, 2025. The settlement of the offer will take place on March 5, 2025. The transaction is subject to approval of merger agreement by board of directors of Pressance Corporation, consummation of due diligence investigation and minimum tender. The Board of Directors of Pressance Corporation formed a special committee for the transaction. The deal has been unanimously approved by the board of directors of Pressance Corporation. The expected completion of the transaction is February 26, 2025.
SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as financial advisor for Open House Group Co., Ltd. Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu acted as legal advisor for Open House Group Co., Ltd. Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. acted as financial advisor for Pressance Corporation. Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. acted as fairness opinion provider for Pressance Corporation. Anderson Mori & Tomotsune LPC acted as legal advisor for Pressance Corporation.
Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) completed the acquisition of 31.32% stake in Pressance Corporation (TSE:3254) from a group of shareholders for ¥51.9 billion on February 26, 2025. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥197 (down from JP¥274 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥316.1b (up 3.7% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥22.9b (down 31% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.3% (down from 11% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Durables industry in Japan are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jan 11
Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) proposed to acquire remaining 36.58% stake in Pressance Corporation (TSE:3254) from a group of shareholders for ¥60.7 billion. Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) proposed to acquire remaining 36.58% stake in Pressance Corporation (TSE:3254) from a group of shareholders for ¥60.7 billion on January 10, 2025. A cash consideration of ¥60.68 billion valued at ¥2390 per share will be paid by Open House Group Co., Ltd. As part of consideration, ¥60.68 billion is paid towards common equity of Pressance Corporation. The transaction will be financed through senior debt of ¥60.68 billion from from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
Tender Offeror will implement the Squeeze-Out Procedure with the aim of making the Tender Offeror the only shareholder of the Target Company. The transaction is subject to approval of merger agreement by target board, consummation of due diligence investigation and minimum tender. The Board of Directors of Pressance Corporation formed a special committee for the transaction. The deal has been unanimously approved by the board. The expected completion of the transaction is February 26, 2025.
SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as financial advisor for Open House Group Co., Ltd. Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu acted as legal advisor for Open House Group Co., Ltd. Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. acted as financial advisor for Pressance Corporation. Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. acted as fairness opinion provider for Pressance Corporation. Anderson Mori & Tomotsune LPC acted as legal advisor for Pressance Corporation. Declared Dividend • Jan 06
Final dividend increased to JP¥84.00 Dividend of JP¥84.00 is 1.2% higher than last year. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 12th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (21% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (20% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 36% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 14% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Dec 31
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥783 (up from JP¥764 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.30t (up 13% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥92.9b (flat on FY 2023). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 8.0% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Dec 12
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2025 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Feb 13, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥783 (up from JP¥764 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.30t (up 13% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥92.9b (flat on FY 2023). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 8.0% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased by 7.6% to JP¥5,770 Up from JP¥5,360, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 5.5% above last closing price of JP¥5,470. Stock is up 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥754 for next year compared to JP¥783 last year. Board Change • Nov 13
Less than half of directors are independent There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The new board member was not an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 7 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Independent Outside Director Hitoshi Ishimura was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Oct 06
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Nov 14, 2024 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Nov 14, 2024 New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (4.9% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to JP¥4,502, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 12% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,310 per share. Announcement • Jun 29
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Aug 13, 2024 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Aug 13, 2024 Announcement • Jun 28
Open House Group Co., Ltd. Announces CEO Changes for Open House Real Estate Investment Advisors Corporation Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced the personnel changes in subsidiary company, Open House Real Estate Investment Advisors Corporation. Based on the resolution of the company's board of directors, the changes has decided that resignation of Koji Sakamoto as President and CEO. And appointment of Tsugumasa Sekiguchi as President and CEO of the company both effective July 1, 2024. Career Summary of Tsugumasa Sekiguchi is as follows: April 1991-Credit Saison Co.,Ltd.; October 1994- Seconded to Atrium Co., Ltd. (transferred on October 15, 1999); May 2005- Director, Atrium Debt Collection Service Co., Ltd.; May 2006- Director, Atrium Co., Ltd. (now Atrium Realty Co., Ltd.); June 2006- Auditor, Atrium Debt Collection Service Co., Ltd.; February 2007 Director, A.I.C. Co.,Ltd; December 2007- Director and Auditor, A.M.Fund Management Co.,Ltd; May 2009- Seconded to Atrium Debt Collection Service Co., Ltd.; August 2010- President and Representative Director, BLUE OCEAN REALTY Co.,Ltd; July 2012- President and Representative Director, OH Real Estate Management Co.,Ltd; April 2015- President and Representative Director, ARK Asset Management Corp.; August 2021- Advisor, Open House Real Estate Co., Ltd. Reported Earnings • May 18
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥158 (down from JP¥206 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥297.9b (up 1.5% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥18.9b (down 24% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (down from 8.5% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • May 17
Dividend of JP¥83.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥83.00. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 23rd December 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (18% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (184% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 36% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Announcement • Mar 31
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on May 15, 2024 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on May 15, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥83.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 12 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 18% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • Feb 16
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥274 (up from JP¥163 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥304.8b (up 23% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥33.0b (up 68% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 11% (up from 7.9% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 68%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Dec 28
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Feb 14, 2024 Announcement • Dec 20
Open House Group Co., Ltd. Announces Changes in Executive Structure Open House Group Co., Ltd. informed that the following executive structure has been determined by the resolution of the 27th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders and the Board of Directors meeting held on December 20, 2023, Ryosuke Fukuoka: Senior Managing Executive Officer, Akira Kuroda: Senior Managing Executive Officer, Shintaro Yoshida: Managing Executive Officer, Kenta Kikuchi: Managing Executive Officer, Rakuto Kuroyanagi: Executive Officer, Kenichiro Kimura: Executive Officer, Tomohiro Kawakami: Executive Officer, Takayuki Koshizuka: Executive Officer, Yasutaka Nomura: Executive Officer. Price Target Changed • Nov 22
Price target decreased by 9.7% to JP¥5,380 Down from JP¥5,958, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 32% above last closing price of JP¥4,091. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥810 for next year compared to JP¥764 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥4,091, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 11% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,110 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥764 (up from JP¥626 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥1.15t (up 21% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥92.1b (up 18% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 8.0% (down from 8.2% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 17
Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,200,000 shares, representing 1.82% for ¥10,000 million. Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,200,000 shares, representing 1.82% of its total shares outstanding excluding treasury shares, for a total of ¥10,000 million. The purpose of repurchase program is to implement flexible capital policy and improve shareholder value. The repurchase program is valid till April 30, 2024. As of November 14, 2023, the company has 120,588,100 shares outstanding excluding treasury shares and has 3,515 shares in treasury. Announcement • Nov 15
Open House Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Dec 20, 2023 Open House Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Dec 20, 2023. Announcement • Sep 27
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Nov 14, 2023 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Nov 14, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥92.00 per share at 3.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 22 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 1.5% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Announcement • Aug 18
Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) made an offer to acquire Sanei Architecture Planning Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3228) for ¥43 billion. Open House Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3288) made an offer to acquire Sanei Architecture Planning Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3228) from a group of shareholders for ¥43 billion on August 16, 2023. As per the transaction, Open House Group Co., Ltd. will pay ¥2025 per share to the shareholders of Sanei Architecture Planning Co.,Ltd. The transaction is subject to minimum tender. The transaction is expected to close on September 28, 2023. SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as financial advisor to Open House Group Co., Ltd. City-Yuwa Partners acted as legal advisor and fairness opinion provider and Frontier Management Inc. Fairness arm acted as financial advisor to Sanei Architecture Planning Co.,Ltd. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥141 (vs JP¥134 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥141 (up from JP¥134 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥243.5b (up 15% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥17.0b (up 1.6% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.0% (down from 7.9% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year. New Risk • Aug 01
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.7% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). High level of non-cash earnings (24% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.7% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jun 26
Open House Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Aug 14, 2023 Announcement • May 17
Open House Group Co., Ltd. Provides Special Dividend Guidance for the Year Ending September 30, 2023 Open House Group Co., Ltd. provided special dividend guidance for the year ending September 30, 2023. For the year, the company expects to pay special dividend of JPY 10.00 per share. The special dividend for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023 (forecast) is due to the commemoration of the 10th anniversary of the company's listing and the achievement of JPY 1 trillion in net sales. Reported Earnings • May 17
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥206 (up from JP¥134 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥293.6b (up 33% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥24.8b (up 47% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.5% (up from 7.7% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 16
Open House Group Co., Ltd. Announces Revision of Annual Dividend Forecasts for Financial Year Ending September 30, 2023 Open House Group Co., Ltd. announced annual dividend forecasts for Financial year ending September 30, 2023 OF JPY 92.00 per share as compared to JPY 82.00 forecasted previously.