Tanseisha's (TSE:9743) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

Unsurprisingly, Tanseisha Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:9743) stock price was strong on the back of its healthy earnings report. We did some analysis and think that investors are missing some details hidden beneath the profit numbers.

Examining Cashflow Against Tanseisha's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to January 2025, Tanseisha had an accrual ratio of 0.20. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of JP¥794m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of JP¥3.88b. Tanseisha's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Tanseisha's Profit Performance

Tanseisha didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Because of this, we think that it may be that Tanseisha's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Tanseisha (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be familiar with.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Tanseisha's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.