Sugimura Warehouse Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:9307) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

It's not a stretch to say that Sugimura Warehouse Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:9307) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 14x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Earnings have risen firmly for Sugimura Warehouse recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this respectable earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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Does Growth Match The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Sugimura Warehouse would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 14% gain to the company's bottom line. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 9.6% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Sugimura Warehouse's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Sugimura Warehouse currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Sugimura Warehouse (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Sugimura Warehouse, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.