Revenue Miss: Kokuyo Co., Ltd. Fell 7.6% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:7984) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.4% to JP¥2,466 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥73b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥166 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Kokuyo

Following the latest results, Kokuyo's two analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥356.2b in 2025. This would be an okay 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.6% to JP¥186. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥363.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥192 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,950, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Kokuyo's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.9% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Kokuyo to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,950, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kokuyo. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Kokuyo that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.