Stock Analysis

3 Japanese Stocks Estimated To Be Up To 36.1% Below Intrinsic Value

TSE:4373
Source: Shutterstock

Japan's stock markets have recently experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 Index down 5.8% and the broader TOPIX Index losing 4.2%. Amid this downturn, investors are increasingly looking for opportunities in undervalued stocks that may offer substantial upside potential once market conditions stabilize. In such a volatile environment, identifying stocks trading below their intrinsic value can be particularly advantageous. These stocks often present an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking to capitalize on future growth prospects while minimizing downside risk.

Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In Japan

NameCurrent PriceFair Value (Est)Discount (Est)
Hagiwara Electric Holdings (TSE:7467)¥3395.00¥6777.7749.9%
I-PEX (TSE:6640)¥1460.00¥2881.4849.3%
Avant Group (TSE:3836)¥2042.00¥4003.0549%
Pilot (TSE:7846)¥4451.00¥8898.7350%
KeePer Technical Laboratory (TSE:6036)¥4015.00¥7897.3649.2%
Adventure (TSE:6030)¥3845.00¥7538.3249%
SHIFT (TSE:3697)¥11820.00¥23367.7949.4%
CIRCULATIONLtd (TSE:7379)¥651.00¥1283.6349.3%
TORIDOLL Holdings (TSE:3397)¥3392.00¥6653.3249%
BayCurrent Consulting (TSE:6532)¥4891.00¥9520.5948.6%

Click here to see the full list of 80 stocks from our Undervalued Japanese Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener.

Let's explore several standout options from the results in the screener.

Simplex Holdings (TSE:4373)

Overview: Simplex Holdings, Inc. offers strategic consulting, design and development, and operation and maintenance services to financial institutions, corporations, and public sectors globally with a market cap of ¥142.94 billion.

Operations: Revenue from the provision of IT solutions amounted to ¥42.26 billion.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 36.1%

Simplex Holdings is trading 36.1% below its estimated fair value of ¥3847.16, with current earnings growing at 26.6% annually over the past five years and projected to grow by 20.2% per year, outpacing the Japanese market's average growth of 8.5%. Despite a highly volatile share price recently, analysts agree on a potential price rise of 34.4%, supported by forecasted revenue growth of 12.8% annually, faster than the market's average rate of 4.2%.

TSE:4373 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024
TSE:4373 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024

Shiseido Company (TSE:4911)

Overview: Shiseido Company, Limited is a global cosmetics manufacturer and retailer based in Japan with a market cap of ¥1.28 trillion.

Operations: Shiseido's revenue segments include ¥279.41 billion from Japan, ¥253.08 billion from China, ¥134.42 billion from EMEA, ¥120.34 billion from the Americas, ¥122.20 billion from Travel Retail, and ¥76.29 billion from Asia-Pacific operations.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 24.8%

Shiseido Company is trading at ¥3121, significantly below its estimated fair value of ¥4148.59. Despite a recent buyback of 300,000 shares for ¥1.04 billion and a dividend payout of JPY 30 per share, profit margins have declined from 2.8% to 1%. However, earnings are forecasted to grow by 35.5% annually over the next three years, outpacing the market's average growth rate of 8.5%, indicating strong future cash flows despite current challenges in profitability and dividend coverage.

TSE:4911 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024
TSE:4911 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024

Recruit Holdings (TSE:6098)

Overview: Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. provides HR technology and business solutions that transform the world of work, with a market cap of ¥12.55 trillion.

Operations: The company generates revenue from three main segments: Staffing (¥1.66 billion), HR Technology (¥1.04 billion), and Matching & Solutions (¥0.81 billion).

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 17%

Recruit Holdings is trading at ¥8425, below its estimated fair value of ¥10145.04. The company's earnings grew by 27.7% over the past year and are forecast to grow 9.31% annually, outpacing the Japanese market's average growth rate of 8.5%. Recent buyback programs aim to enhance shareholder returns using existing cash reserves, further supporting its undervaluation based on cash flows despite moderate revenue growth projections of 4.6% annually.

TSE:6098 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024
TSE:6098 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2024

Where To Now?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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