Nippon Thompson Co., Ltd. (TSE:6480) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Nippon Thompson Co., Ltd. (TSE:6480) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to JP¥492 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥14b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥37.82. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nippon Thompson after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Nippon Thompson

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nippon Thompson's two analysts is for revenues of JP¥60.5b in 2026. This reflects a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 679% to JP¥46.82. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥62.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥66.40 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥577 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Nippon Thompson's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nippon Thompson is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nippon Thompson. They also downgraded Nippon Thompson's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Nippon Thompson going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Nippon Thompson (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.