There's Reason For Concern Over Max Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:6454) Price

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 14x in Japan, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Max Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:6454) P/E ratio of 16x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Max certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Max

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Max will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

How Is Max's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Max's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 38% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 112% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 5.1% per year during the coming three years according to the dual analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 9.5% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that Max is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Max currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Max with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

You might be able to find a better investment than Max. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com