New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.6% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.6% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.8% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥17.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2026. Payment date: 07 September 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Announcement • Jun 19
Tadano Ltd. Announces Management Changes Tadano Ltd. announced its decision regarding officer changes. Katsuhisa Hashimoto was newly appointed as Executive Officer, Corporate Division, and General Manager of Accounting Department, effective July 1, 2026. Kenichi Sawada retired as Managing Executive Officer and Head of Customer Support Division, effective June 30, 2026, and was scheduled to assume the position of advisor effective July 1, 2026. Noriaki Yashiro's responsibilities and assignments changed to Director and Senior Managing Executive Officer, European Operations, Global HR ICT Division, President and CEO of Tadano Europe Holdings GmbH, President and CEO of Tadano Demag GmbH, and President and CEO of Tadano Faun GmbH, effective July 1, 2026. Announcement • Jun 03
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 04, 2026 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Aug 04, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥1,382, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 40% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥15.29 (vs JP¥29.20 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥15.29 (down from JP¥29.20 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥85.8b (up 6.6% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.93b (down 48% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 4.6% in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 38% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Live News • May 08
Tadano Guides to Lower Profit and Dividend Despite Solid Sales Growth Tadano reported first quarter sales that were higher year on year, while profit declined sharply as margins came under pressure.
The company guided to lower earnings and a reduced dividend payout for the fiscal year ending 2026.
Management emphasized maintaining a solid balance sheet and financial stability over aggressive growth or higher capital returns.
For you as an investor, the combination of higher sales and sharply weaker profit points to cost or mix headwinds that are affecting profitability even as revenue holds up. The decision to guide to lower earnings and cut the dividend suggests management is keeping a tight focus on cash preservation and balance sheet strength rather than prioritizing income for shareholders in the near term.
This kind of stance often reflects caution about the operating backdrop or internal investment needs, even when the balance sheet is described as solid. If you hold or are tracking Tadano, the key things to watch from here are any further detail on what is pressuring margins, how management plans to address those issues, and whether the lower dividend level is framed as a temporary reset or a new baseline. Announcement • May 08
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 07, 2026 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 07, 2026 Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥17.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥17.00. Ex-date: 29th June 2026 Payment date: 7th September 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 3.1% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 10% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 06
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥359.7b to JP¥405.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥115 to JP¥116 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 20% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥1,250 to JP¥1,400. Share price fell 7.3% to JP¥1,366 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 05
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥1,400 Up from JP¥1,233, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,338. Stock is up 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥116 for next year compared to JP¥145 last year. New Risk • Feb 11
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥145 (up from JP¥52.29 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥349.5b (up 20% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥18.3b (up 176% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 2.3% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 10
Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2026 Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥1,472, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. Announcement • Jan 17
Tadano Ltd. Announces the Retirement Of Tatsuro Ishizuka, an Outside Director, Effective March 27, 2026 Tadano Ltd. announced the retirement Of Tatsuro Ishizuka, an Outside Director, effective March 27, 2026. Announcement • Jan 16
Tadano Ltd. Announces Executive Changes Tadano Ltd. announced changes in senior management positions. Noriaki Yashiro, who currently serves as Director and Managing Executive Officer, will be appointed Senior Managing Executive Officer. Hiroyuki Goda, presently Director and Managing Executive Officer, will assume the role of Senior Managing Executive Officer. Mr. Goda will retire from his position as Director effective March 27, 2026, following the conclusion of the Company’s Ordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for the same day. Noriaki Yashiro Business in charge European Operations, Global HR and ICT Division. Duties President and CEO of Tadano Europe Holdings, GmbH President and CEO of Tadano Demag GmbH and President and CEO of Tadano Faun GmbH. Hiroyuki Goda Business in charge Global Chief Technical Officer and European Operations, Duties Director of Tadano Europe Holdings GmbH, Chief Technical Officer of Tadano Demag GmbH and Chief Technical Officer of Tadano Faun GmbH. Price Target Changed • Dec 31
Price target increased by 22% to JP¥1,500 Up from JP¥1,233, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 41% above last closing price of JP¥1,061. Stock is down 7.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥115 for next year compared to JP¥52.29 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2025. Payment date: 30 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%). Announcement • Dec 03
Tadano Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 10, 2026 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 10, 2026 New Risk • Nov 08
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 43% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥69.70 (vs JP¥28.27 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥69.70 (up from JP¥28.27 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥75.8b (up 6.2% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥8.80b (up 145% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 12% (up from 5.0% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Sep 06
First half dividend of JP¥18.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥18.00. Ex-date: 29th December 2025 Payment date: 30th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (68% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 5.0% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 115% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Sep 01
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 07, 2025 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 07, 2025 Board Change • Aug 21
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 5 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 5 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Junichi Kaneko was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.65 (vs JP¥24.98 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥4.65 (down from JP¥24.98 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥84.3b (up 6.8% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥587.0m (down 82% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 4.0% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Jul 03
High number of new directors Director & Deputy Chief of Infrastructure Business Division Tatsuya Kijima was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in the last week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 23
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 19% to JP¥934. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,168, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 14% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 70% in the next 2 years. Announcement • May 31
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 08, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥29.20 (vs JP¥15.87 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥29.20 (up from JP¥15.87 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥80.5b (up 29% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.70b (up 84% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from 3.2% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥18.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥18.00. Ex-date: 27th June 2025 Payment date: 5th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (27% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 6.1% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 87% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Apr 05
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 09, 2025 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 09, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to JP¥957, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 4.3% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,199 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 04
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 17% to JP¥957. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,199, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 12%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 23% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Mar 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 15
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥302.4b to JP¥346.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥93.98 to JP¥124 per share. Net income forecast to grow 136% next year vs 8.3% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,200 to JP¥1,233. Share price fell 6.3% to JP¥1,089 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 10
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.4% to JP¥1,099. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,439, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 5.3% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 95% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥52.29 (down from JP¥61.26 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥291.5b (up 4.0% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥6.64b (down 15% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 2.8% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 14
Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025 Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025. Price Target Changed • Dec 31
Price target decreased by 11% to JP¥1,200 Down from JP¥1,350, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,149. Stock is down 2.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥67.51 for next year compared to JP¥61.26 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥13.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 December 2024. Payment date: 28 March 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 27% and the cash payout ratio is 86%. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.3%). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 26
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from JP¥83.38 to JP¥67.50. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥295.1b at last update. Net income forecast to grow 2.2% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,275 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,143 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.27 (vs JP¥13.29 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥28.27 (up from JP¥13.29 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥71.3b (flat on 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥3.59b (up 113% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.0% (up from 2.4% in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥1,136, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 2.6% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,454 per share. Announcement • Nov 07
Tadano Ltd. agreed to acquire Crane Business of IHI Transport Machinery Co. Tadano Ltd. agreed to acquire Crane Business of IHI Transport Machinery Co on November 6, 2024. Announcement • Sep 13
Tadano Ltd. (TSE:6395) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire remaining 85.5% stake in Manitex International, Inc. (NasdaqCM:MNTX) for approximately $110 million. Tadano Ltd. (TSE:6395) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire remaining 85.5% stake in Manitex International, Inc. (NasdaqCM:MNTX) for approximately $110 million on September 12, 2024. Tadano will acquire remaining 85.5% stake in Manitex International in an all-cash transaction at an equity value of $122 million and total transaction value of $223 million, including outstanding debt. Under the terms of the transaction, Manitex shareholders will receive $5.80 per share in cash, which represents a premium of approximately 52.2% over the Company’s closing share price of $3.81 on September 11, 2024, the last full trading day before announcement of the transaction, and a premium of approximately 47.9% to the 30-day volume weighted average price of Manitex’s shares through September 11, 2024. Upon completion of the transaction, Manitex’s shares will no longer trade on NASDAQ or any other public market. A termination fee of $4.9 million would be payable to Tadano by Manitex in the event the Merger Agreement was terminated.
The transaction is expected to close early in the first quarter of 2025, subject to approval by Manitex shareholders, receipt of regulatory approvals, including under any antitrust law and from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and other customary closing conditions. The transaction was unanimously approved by Manitex’s Board of Directors, which recommends that Manitex shareholders vote in favor of the transaction. Tadano Board of Directors have approved the transaction.
Brown Gibbons Lang & Company is serving as exclusive financial advisor and fairness opinion to Manitex and; Todd Kaye and Stephanie Hosler of Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner LLP are serving as legal counsel to Manitex. Perella Weinberg Partners is serving as exclusive financial advisor to Tadano, and Francis J. Aquila and Mimi Wu of Sullivan & Cromwell LLP is serving as legal counsel to Tadano. InvestorCom LLC acted as proxy solicitor to Manitex in the transaction. Announcement • Aug 28
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 11, 2024 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 11, 2024 Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥20.43 (vs JP¥18.94 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥20.43 (up from JP¥18.94 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥70.7b (up 3.4% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.59b (up 7.9% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.7% (up from 3.5% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Aug 12
Dividend of JP¥13.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥13.00. Ex-date: 27th December 2024 Payment date: 28th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (27% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (42% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 2.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 44% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 26% After last week's 26% share price decline to JP¥845, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Machinery industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 24% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥934 per share. Announcement • Jun 02
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 09, 2024 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Aug 09, 2024 Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥15.87 (vs JP¥18.94 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥15.87 (down from JP¥18.94 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥62.5b (down 8.7% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.01b (down 16% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 3.5% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 63% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • May 08
Final dividend of JP¥10.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥10.00. Ex-date: 27th June 2024 Payment date: 5th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (31% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (42% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.7% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 55% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Mar 31
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Price Target Changed • Mar 11
Price target increased by 7.1% to JP¥1,360 Up from JP¥1,270, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 9.3% above last closing price of JP¥1,244. Stock is up 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥82.10 for next year compared to JP¥61.26 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥61.26 (up from JP¥31.61 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥280.3b (up 8.1% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥7.77b (up 94% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.8% (up from 1.5% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 14
Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024 Tadano Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 24
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from JP¥61.60 to JP¥72.60. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥278.1b. Net income forecast to grow 97% next year vs 8.0% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥1,270. Share price was steady at JP¥1,180 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥6.00 per share at 0.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 01 April 2024. Trailing yield: 0.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.2%). Price Target Changed • Dec 16
Price target decreased by 8.4% to JP¥1,260 Down from JP¥1,375, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of JP¥1,094. Stock is up 15% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥61.60 for next year compared to JP¥31.61 last year. Announcement • Dec 15
Tadano Ltd. (TSE:6395) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire Nagano Industry Co., Ltd. from JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8595) and others. Tadano Ltd. (TSE:6395) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire Nagano Industry Co., Ltd. from JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:8595) and others on December 14, 2023. Nagano Industry had sales of ¥5.6 billion in 2022. Announcement • Dec 06
Tadano Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 14, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.29 (vs JP¥0.74 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥13.29 (up from JP¥0.74 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥70.7b (up 32% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.69b (up JP¥1.60b from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.4% (up from 0.2% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 5 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 05
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 14, 2023 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 14, 2023 Price Target Changed • Oct 03
Price target increased by 7.4% to JP¥1,358 Up from JP¥1,264, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of JP¥1,234. Stock is up 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥56.57 for next year compared to JP¥31.61 last year. Price Target Changed • Sep 06
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥1,246 Up from JP¥1,097, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,235. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥55.58 for next year compared to JP¥31.61 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.95 (vs JP¥14.86 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥18.95. Revenue: JP¥66.6b (up 20% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.63b (down 12% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.4% (down from 3.3% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Announcement • Jun 30
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 10, 2023 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 10, 2023 Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥1.83 (vs JP¥0.70 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥1.83 (up from JP¥0.70 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥61.6b (up 52% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥232.0m (up JP¥321.0m from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.4% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 6 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 2% per year. Announcement • Dec 21
Tadano Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 14, 2023 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 14, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Shosaku Murayama was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Sep 28
Tadano Ltd. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Nov 14, 2022 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Nov 14, 2022 Major Estimate Revision • Aug 31
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from JP¥41.78 to JP¥28.22. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥219.9b at last update. Net income forecast to grow 19% next year vs 8.6% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,042 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.2% to JP¥956 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.86 (vs JP¥84.07 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥14.86 (down from JP¥84.07 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥77.7b (up 84% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.88b (down 82% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.4% (down from 25% in 1Q 2022). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.7%, compared to a 9.2% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Jul 19
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Shosaku Murayama was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Apr 19
Tadano Ltd. Announces Temporary Suspension of Production at Tadano Group Manufacturing Facilities Tadano Ltd. will temporarily suspend production at the following plants in Japan due to forecasted interruptions in the delivery of certain parts from certain suppliers stemming from the semiconductor shortage that has been ongoing since last year, Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, and supply chain effects from the ongoing coronavirus lockdowns in China. Announcement • Apr 08
Tadano Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Apr 28, 2022 Tadano Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Apr 28, 2022 Buying Opportunity • Apr 06
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 15%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,244, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.3% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥4.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 28 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 6.4% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.0%). 
