Announcement • 11h
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces an Equity Buyback for 5,000,000 shares, representing 4.81% for ¥10,000 million. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 5,000,000 shares, representing 4.81% of its share capital, for ¥10,000 million. The purpose of the program is to flexibly implement capital policies in response to changes in the business environment, while enhancing shareholder returns and improving capital efficiency. The program will run until March 13, 2027. As of March 31, 2026, the company had 104,031,492 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 181,787 shares in treasury. Announcement • May 13
Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026 Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥40.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 30 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 38% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥59.99 (vs JP¥48.11 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥59.99 (up from JP¥48.11 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥73.8b (up 5.0% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥5.85b (up 19% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 7.9% (up from 7.0% in 3Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 34% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 30th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (40% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (71% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 13% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 2.2% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 04
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.2% to JP¥2,077. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,622, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 3.0% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥55.15 (vs JP¥34.97 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥55.15 (up from JP¥34.97 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥70.3b (flat on 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥5.43b (up 49% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 7.7% (up from 5.2% in 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 28% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 29% to JP¥2,261. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,860, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 1.4% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥44.16 (vs JP¥59.61 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥44.16 (down from JP¥59.61 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥65.3b (down 1.7% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥4.50b (down 30% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.9% (down from 9.6% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥40.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥40.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 2nd December 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (38% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (101% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 05
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.0% to JP¥1,818. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,497, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.9% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 3.5% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Jul 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. Director Masaki Miyaji was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 28
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.2% to JP¥1,821. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,516, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.5% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 3.8% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • May 19
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 101% Dividend yield: 4.3% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (101% cash payout ratio). Reported Earnings • May 19
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥213 (up from JP¥171 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥279.2b (up 4.6% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥22.1b (up 19% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.9% (up from 7.0% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 22% per year. Announcement • May 16
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces an Equity Buyback for 6,500,000 shares, representing 6.12% for ¥10,000 million. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 6,500,000 shares, representing 6.12% of its share capital, for ¥10,000 million. The company will repurchase its shares to carry out a flexible capital policy that can respond to future changes in the business environment. The program will run until December 30, 2025. As of March 31, 2025, the company had 106,213,279 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 3,648,863 shares in treasury. Announcement • May 15
Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025 Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025. Announcement • May 14
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) agreed to acquire remaining 99.45% stake in Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:6373) from a group of shareholders for ¥12.2 billion. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) agreed to acquire remaining 99.45% stake in Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:6373) from a group of shareholders for ¥12.2 billion on May 14, 2025. Upon completion, Tsubakimoto Chain Co. will own 100% stake in Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. The transaction is subject to approval of merger agreement by target board, approval of offer by target shareholders, consummation of due diligence investigation and subject to antitrust regulations. The Board of Directors of The Board of Directors of Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. unanimously resolved to implement the share exchange. Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. formed a special committee for the transaction. The expected completion of the transaction is January 1, 2026.
Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. acted as financial advisor for Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. acted as fairness opinion provider for Tsubakimoto Chain Co. Nishimura & Asahi acted as legal advisor for Tsubakimoto Chain Co. SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as financial advisor for Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as fairness opinion provider for Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. Anderson Mori & Tomotsune acted as legal advisor for Daido Kogyo Co., Ltd. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥47.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 30 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 32% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥48.11 (vs JP¥43.36 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥48.11 (up from JP¥43.36 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥70.3b (up 3.2% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥4.94b (up 5.9% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.0% (up from 6.9% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year. Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend of JP¥47.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥47.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 30th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (42% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 5.2% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2025 earnings released Second quarter 2025 results: Revenue: JP¥69.9b (up 4.6% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.63b (down 11% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.2% (down from 6.1% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year. New Risk • Sep 26
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 90% Dividend yield: 12% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (90% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥99.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.2%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.9%). Announcement • Aug 16
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) acquired Agricultural Business of Kidaya Shoten, K.K. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) acquired Agricultural Business of Kidaya Shoten, K.K. on August 15, 2024.
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) Completed the acquisition of Agricultural Business of Kidaya Shoten, K.K. on August 15, 2024. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥179 (vs JP¥87.23 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥179 (up from JP¥87.23 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥66.5b (up 7.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥6.38b (up 98% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.6% (up from 5.2% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥99.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥99.00. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (47% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (31% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 14% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥503 to JP¥612. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥279.3b. Net income forecast to grow 17% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,150 to JP¥5,050. Share price rose 2.2% to JP¥5,950 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 11
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 21% to JP¥5,820. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥7,353, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 0.5% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥440 to JP¥503. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥276.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 0.8% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥4,150 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.7% to JP¥5,740 over the past week. New Risk • May 17
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥512 (up from JP¥371 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥266.8b (up 6.1% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥18.6b (up 35% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 7.0% (up from 5.5% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 16
Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Announcement • May 15
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,800,000 shares, representing 5.02% for ¥10,000 million. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 1,800,000 shares, representing 5.02% of its share capital, for ¥10,000 million. The company will repurchase its shares in order to implement a flexible capital policy that responds to changes in the business environment, enhance shareholder returns, and improve capital efficiency over the medium to long term, and cancel all acquired treasury stock. The program will run until March 31, 2025. As of March 31, 2024, the company had 35,852,944 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 1,228,449 shares in treasury. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥100.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%). Price Target Changed • Mar 15
Price target increased by 9.2% to JP¥4,150 Up from JP¥3,800, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 16% below last closing price of JP¥4,945. Stock is up 57% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥409 for next year compared to JP¥371 last year. New Risk • Feb 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥130 (vs JP¥112 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥130 (up from JP¥112 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥68.0b (up 6.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥4.66b (up 12% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.9% (up from 6.5% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year. Buying Opportunity • Jan 12
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 3.6%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥5,093, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.6% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 0.7% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥112 (vs JP¥81.09 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥112 (up from JP¥81.09 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥66.8b (up 9.6% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥4.08b (up 36% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from 4.9% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share at 3.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 04 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.1%). Reported Earnings • Jul 29
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥87.23 (vs JP¥101 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥87.23 (down from JP¥101 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥61.9b (up 6.9% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥3.22b (down 14% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (down from 6.5% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year. Announcement • May 24
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,200,000 shares, representing 3.24% for ¥5,000 million. Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (TSE:6371) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 1,200,000 shares, representing 3.24% of its share capital, for ¥5,000 million. The company will repurchase its shares in order to implement a flexible capital policy that responds to changes in the business environment, enhance shareholder returns, and improve capital efficiency over the medium to long term, and cancel all acquired treasury stock. The program will run until March 29, 2024. As of March 31, 2023, the company had 37,032,697 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 1,248,696 shares in treasury. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥371 (down from JP¥393 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥251.6b (up 17% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥13.7b (down 5.5% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 6.7% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 6.7%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 13
Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023 Tsubakimoto Chain Co., Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥70.00 per share at 4.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 17% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Feb 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from JP¥381 to JP¥340 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥244.1b. Net income forecast to shrink 0.4% next year vs 7.2% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,873. Share price was steady at JP¥3,075 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥112 (vs JP¥108 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥112 (up from JP¥108 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥63.9b (up 21% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥4.17b (up 4.3% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 7.5% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Feb 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 9 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Outside Director Hisae Kitayama was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Hisae Kitayama was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥81.09 (vs JP¥86.04 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥81.09 (down from JP¥86.04 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥61.0b (up 17% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥3.00b (down 5.7% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.9% (down from 6.1% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 02 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥101 (vs JP¥92.91 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥101 (up from JP¥92.91 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥58.0b (up 15% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥3.75b (up 9.1% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 6.8% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.7%, compared to a 10.0% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 14
Tsubakimoto Chain Co. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 03, 2023 Tsubakimoto Chain Co. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 03, 2023 Price Target Changed • May 31
Price target increased to JP¥3,940 Up from JP¥3,450, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of JP¥3,160. Stock is up 2.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥374 for next year compared to JP¥393 last year. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥393 (up from JP¥235 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥215.9b (up 12% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥14.5b (up 67% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from 4.5% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.7%, compared to a 8.0% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Hisae Kitayama was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 30 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 25% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.0%). Price Target Changed • Mar 11
Price target increased to JP¥3,650 Up from JP¥3,350, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of JP¥3,090. Stock is down 4.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥348 for next year compared to JP¥235 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥108 (up from JP¥54.84 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥52.9b (up 7.9% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥4.00b (up 97% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 4.1% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 28%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.2%, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥50.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2021. Payment date: 02 December 2021. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Price Target Changed • Sep 06
Price target increased to JP¥3,500 Up from JP¥3,025, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,510. Stock is up 45% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥92.91 (vs JP¥32.72 in 1Q 2021) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥50.3b (up 23% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥3.44b (up 184% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 6.8% (up from 3.0% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 12
Consensus EPS estimates increase to JP¥341 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from JP¥219.7b to JP¥226.6b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥310 to JP¥341 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥3,100 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥3,270 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥235 (vs JP¥309 in FY 2020) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥193.4b (down 15% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥8.71b (down 25% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 5.1% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥30.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 29 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (2.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.1%). Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 22
New 90-day high: JP¥2,941 The company is up 13% from its price of JP¥2,600 on 24 November 2020. The Japanese market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Machinery industry, which is also up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is JP¥5,389 per share.