Toto Ltd. Just Recorded A 25% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Toto Ltd. (TSE:5332) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to JP¥4,401 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥356b were what the analysts expected, Toto surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥48.40 per share, an impressive 25% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toto

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Toto from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥735.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.4% to JP¥228. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥741.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥228 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥4,907. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Toto analyst has a price target of JP¥6,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,000. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that Toto is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Toto analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Toto that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.