Toto Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 85%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Toto Ltd. (TSE:5332) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 9.3% to JP¥4,411. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥165b were what the analysts expected, Toto surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥51.52 per share, an impressive 85% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toto

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Toto from nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥740.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 7.5% to JP¥219 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥739.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥218 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥4,296. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Toto, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,300 and the most bearish at JP¥3,600 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Toto shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Toto's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.9% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.3% per year. So although Toto is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,296, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Toto analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Toto that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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