Tess Holdings Co.,Ltd.'s (TSE:5074) 30% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Earnings

Tess Holdings Co.,Ltd. (TSE:5074) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 30% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 43% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Tess HoldingsLtd may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.7x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios greater than 14x and even P/E's higher than 21x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Tess HoldingsLtd hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Tess HoldingsLtd would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.3%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 29% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the two analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 18% each year over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 9.6% per annum.

With this information, we are not surprised that Tess HoldingsLtd is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Final Word

Tess HoldingsLtd's P/E looks about as weak as its stock price lately. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Tess HoldingsLtd maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Tess HoldingsLtd (at least 3 which are concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Tess HoldingsLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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