Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a sad week for Nitto Boseki Co., Ltd. (TSE:3110), who've watched their investment drop 14% to JP¥6,200 in the week since the company reported its interim result. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥59.32, some 30% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥53b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nitto Boseki after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Nitto Boseki

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nitto Boseki's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥107.2b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 3.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 15% to JP¥290. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥107.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥289 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,754, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Nitto Boseki analyst has a price target of JP¥8,050 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,300. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nitto Boseki shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nitto Boseki's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.6% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Nitto Boseki to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Nitto Boseki analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nitto Boseki you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.