MonotaRO Co., Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 9.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The first-quarter results for MonotaRO Co., Ltd. (TSE:3064) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. MonotaRO reported JP¥79b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥15.17 beat expectations, being 9.8% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for MonotaRO in our free report.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MonotaRO from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥329.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 11% to JP¥61.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥328.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥61.47 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for MonotaRO

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,579. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic MonotaRO analyst has a price target of JP¥3,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,000. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.1% per year. So although MonotaRO is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MonotaRO going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.