Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd.

TSE:1861 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥155.8b

Kumagai GumiLtd Valuation

Is 1861 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1861 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1861 (¥3630) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥2976.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1861 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1861?

Key metric: As 1861 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1861. This is calculated by dividing 1861's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1861's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.3x
EarningsJP¥6.41b
Market CapJP¥155.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1861's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1861 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.6x
1961 Sanki Engineering
13x7.3%JP¥156.0b
1980 Dai-Dan
13x4.8%JP¥157.4b
1949 Sumitomo DensetsuLtd
14.7x-2.5%JP¥176.2b
1941 Chudenko
13.8xn/aJP¥184.4b
1861 Kumagai GumiLtd
24.3x36.5%JP¥155.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the peer average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1861's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Construction Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
1861 24.3xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies25PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the JP Construction industry average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1861's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1861 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1861 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,630.00
JP¥4,382.00
+20.7%
15.7%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,110.00n/a5
Nov ’25JP¥3,500.00
JP¥4,382.00
+25.2%
15.7%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,110.00n/a5
Oct ’25JP¥3,605.00
JP¥4,382.00
+21.6%
15.7%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,110.00n/a5
Sep ’25JP¥3,580.00
JP¥4,242.00
+18.5%
17.0%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,110.00n/a5
Aug ’25JP¥3,505.00
JP¥4,320.00
+23.3%
13.7%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,550.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥3,645.00
JP¥4,320.00
+18.5%
13.7%JP¥5,100.00JP¥3,550.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥3,620.00
JP¥4,330.00
+19.6%
11.1%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,800.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥4,140.00
JP¥4,330.00
+4.6%
11.1%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,800.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥4,125.00
JP¥4,000.00
-3.0%
14.2%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,200.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥3,915.00
JP¥4,000.00
+2.2%
14.2%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,200.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥3,820.00
JP¥3,980.00
+4.2%
14.1%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,200.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥3,605.00
JP¥3,925.00
+8.9%
15.6%JP¥4,900.00JP¥3,200.00n/a4
Dec ’24JP¥3,460.00
JP¥3,780.00
+9.2%
10.1%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,200.00n/a5
Nov ’24JP¥3,720.00
JP¥3,660.00
-1.6%
12.2%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,500.005
Oct ’24JP¥3,525.00
JP¥3,660.00
+3.8%
12.2%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,605.005
Sep ’24JP¥3,390.00
JP¥3,280.00
-3.2%
8.9%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥3,580.005
Aug ’24JP¥3,230.00
JP¥3,280.00
+1.5%
8.9%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥3,505.005
Jul ’24JP¥3,080.00
JP¥3,200.00
+3.9%
5.2%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥3,645.005
Jun ’24JP¥3,000.00
JP¥3,070.00
+2.3%
7.4%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥3,620.005
May ’24JP¥2,882.00
JP¥2,987.50
+3.7%
5.8%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥4,140.004
Apr ’24JP¥2,659.00
JP¥2,987.50
+12.4%
5.8%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥4,125.004
Mar ’24JP¥2,806.00
JP¥3,016.67
+7.5%
6.4%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥3,915.003
Feb ’24JP¥2,632.00
JP¥3,050.00
+15.9%
9.7%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,820.004
Jan ’24JP¥2,631.00
JP¥2,970.00
+12.9%
10.4%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥3,605.005
Dec ’23JP¥2,542.00
JP¥2,990.00
+17.6%
9.6%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,650.00JP¥3,460.005
Nov ’23JP¥2,507.00
JP¥2,990.00
+19.3%
9.6%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,650.00JP¥3,720.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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