Toda Corporation Just Missed Revenue By 7.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Toda Corporation (TSE:1860) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.2% to JP¥958 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥112b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥52.19 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Toda

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Toda's four analysts is for revenues of JP¥600.9b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 55% to JP¥91.67. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥601.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥93.27 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,093, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Toda analyst has a price target of JP¥1,370 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥850. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Toda's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.05% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Toda is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,093, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Toda analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Toda you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.