Matsui Construction Co., Ltd. (TSE:1810) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥26.00 per share on the 3rd of December. This makes the dividend yield 4.4%, which is above the industry average.
While the dividend yield is important for income investors, it is also important to consider any large share price moves, as this will generally outweigh any gains from distributions. Investors will be pleased to see that Matsui Construction's stock price has increased by 30% in the last 3 months, which is good for shareholders and can also explain a decrease in the dividend yield.
Matsui Construction's Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions
While it is great to have a strong dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is sustainable. The last dividend was quite easily covered by Matsui Construction's earnings. This indicates that a lot of the earnings are being reinvested into the business, with the aim of fueling growth.
Over the next year, EPS could expand by 2.5% if recent trends continue. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 69% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.
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Dividend Volatility
Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the dividend has gone from ¥8.00 total annually to ¥53.00. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 21% per annum over that time. It is great to see strong growth in the dividend payments, but cuts are concerning as it may indicate the payout policy is too ambitious.
Matsui Construction May Find It Hard To Grow The Dividend
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. Earnings has been rising at 2.5% per annum over the last five years, which admittedly is a bit slow. Growth of 2.5% per annum is not particularly high, which might explain why the company is paying out a higher proportion of earnings. This could mean the dividend doesn't have the growth potential we look for going into the future.
In Summary
In summary, it's great to see that the company can raise the dividend and keep it in a sustainable range. While the payout ratios are a good sign, we are less enthusiastic about the company's dividend record. The dividend looks okay, but there have been some issues in the past, so we would be a little bit cautious.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Just as an example, we've come across 2 warning signs for Matsui Construction you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.