Obayashi Corporation

TSE:1802 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥1.5t

Obayashi Valuation

Is 1802 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1802 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1802 (¥2033.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥2607.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1802 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1802?

Key metric: As 1802 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1802. This is calculated by dividing 1802's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1802's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.5x
EarningsJP¥100.42b
Market CapJP¥1.46t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1802's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1802 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.1x
1812 Kajima
12.5x8.0%JP¥1.2t
1801 Taisei
17.9x9.8%JP¥1.3t
1803 Shimizu
69.2x27.7%JP¥801.6b
1944 Kinden
17x3.2%JP¥609.7b
1802 Obayashi
14.5x6.4%JP¥1.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1802 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the peer average (29.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1802's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Construction Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
1802 14.5xIndustry Avg. 11.1xNo. of Companies22PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1802 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the JP Construction industry average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1802's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1802 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.5x
Fair PE Ratio17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1802 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1802 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,033.50
JP¥2,350.00
+15.6%
3.8%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,200.00n/a8
Nov ’25JP¥1,879.50
JP¥2,312.50
+23.0%
5.2%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,100.00n/a8
Oct ’25JP¥1,813.00
JP¥2,300.00
+26.9%
5.3%JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,100.00n/a7
Sep ’25JP¥1,864.00
JP¥2,108.75
+13.1%
18.7%JP¥2,400.00JP¥1,120.00n/a8
Aug ’25JP¥1,931.00
JP¥2,090.00
+8.2%
18.4%JP¥2,350.00JP¥1,120.00n/a8
Jul ’25JP¥1,920.00
JP¥2,060.00
+7.3%
19.5%JP¥2,350.00JP¥1,120.00n/a7
Jun ’25JP¥1,829.50
JP¥1,960.00
+7.1%
20.7%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,120.00n/a7
May ’25JP¥1,723.00
JP¥1,850.00
+7.4%
19.6%JP¥2,300.00JP¥1,120.00n/a7
Apr ’25JP¥1,792.00
JP¥1,792.86
+0.05%
17.6%JP¥2,200.00JP¥1,120.00n/a7
Mar ’25JP¥1,479.00
JP¥1,425.00
-3.7%
21.1%JP¥1,900.00JP¥960.00n/a8
Feb ’25JP¥1,366.50
JP¥1,358.75
-0.6%
19.6%JP¥1,900.00JP¥960.00n/a8
Jan ’25JP¥1,220.00
JP¥1,321.25
+8.3%
20.3%JP¥1,900.00JP¥960.00n/a8
Dec ’24JP¥1,262.00
JP¥1,297.78
+2.8%
19.6%JP¥1,900.00JP¥960.00n/a9
Nov ’24JP¥1,331.00
JP¥1,297.78
-2.5%
19.6%JP¥1,900.00JP¥960.00JP¥1,879.509
Oct ’24JP¥1,316.50
JP¥1,208.89
-8.2%
11.9%JP¥1,500.00JP¥960.00JP¥1,813.009
Sep ’24JP¥1,335.00
JP¥1,112.22
-16.7%
15.7%JP¥1,500.00JP¥900.00JP¥1,864.009
Aug ’24JP¥1,327.00
JP¥1,084.44
-18.3%
16.1%JP¥1,500.00JP¥900.00JP¥1,931.009
Jul ’24JP¥1,244.00
JP¥1,003.33
-19.3%
11.8%JP¥1,170.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,920.009
Jun ’24JP¥1,143.00
JP¥990.00
-13.4%
10.6%JP¥1,120.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,829.509
May ’24JP¥1,129.00
JP¥988.89
-12.4%
9.2%JP¥1,100.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,723.009
Apr ’24JP¥1,013.00
JP¥987.50
-2.5%
9.7%JP¥1,100.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,792.008
Mar ’24JP¥1,014.00
JP¥961.43
-5.2%
9.0%JP¥1,100.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,479.007
Feb ’24JP¥988.00
JP¥961.43
-2.7%
9.0%JP¥1,100.00JP¥810.00JP¥1,366.507
Jan ’24JP¥998.00
JP¥925.00
-7.3%
11.0%JP¥1,100.00JP¥770.00JP¥1,220.008
Dec ’23JP¥1,009.00
JP¥926.25
-8.2%
10.8%JP¥1,100.00JP¥770.00JP¥1,262.008
Nov ’23JP¥952.00
JP¥917.50
-3.6%
10.4%JP¥1,100.00JP¥770.00JP¥1,331.008

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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