Results: Taisei Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

A week ago, Taisei Corporation (TSE:1801) came out with a strong set of full-year numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.4% to hit JP¥2.2t. Taisei also reported a statutory profit of JP¥683, which was an impressive 27% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Taisei's seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.00t in 2026, which would reflect a small 7.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 20% to JP¥590 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥2.01t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥582 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Taisei

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥8,629. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Taisei, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥10,000 and the most bearish at JP¥7,600 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.0% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Taisei's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Taisei's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Taisei analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Taisei (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.