Mazda Motor Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Mazda Motor Corporation (TSE:7261) missed earnings with its latest interim results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥2.4t, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 66%, coming in at just JP¥56.07 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mazda Motor

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mazda Motor from 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥5.02t in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to JP¥248. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥5.12t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥278 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,454, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Mazda Motor analyst has a price target of JP¥2,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,000. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mazda Motor's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mazda Motor is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mazda Motor. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mazda Motor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mazda Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mazda Motor .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.