Stock Analysis
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Daido Metal Co., Ltd. (TSE:7245) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Daido Metal
How Much Debt Does Daido Metal Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Daido Metal had JP¥63.6b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of JP¥29.6b, its net debt is less, at about JP¥34.0b.
How Strong Is Daido Metal's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Daido Metal had liabilities of JP¥78.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of JP¥35.9b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥29.6b as well as receivables valued at JP¥32.7b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥51.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the JP¥24.0b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Daido Metal would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Daido Metal has net debt worth 2.0 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 5.6 times the interest expense. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. Importantly, Daido Metal grew its EBIT by 51% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Daido Metal can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Daido Metal produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 58% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Neither Daido Metal's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Daido Metal's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Daido Metal that you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:7245
Daido Metal
Engages in the manufacture and sale of bearings in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, China, and internationally.